When the Trump administration estimated its historic tax-cut bill would result in a 3 to 4 percent growth rate in the economy and a consequent budget surplus, Democrats and many economists scoffed.
Larry Summers, Obama's first chief economist, declared the U.S. was mired in a new era of "secular stagnation" making 3 percent growth unachievable, recalls Stephen Moore, who served as senior economic adviser to the Trump campaign. And New York Times economist Paul Krugman said the nation was more likely to see flying cars than 3 to 4 percent growth.
The latest government figures, however, show April "was a blockbuster for growth, federal revenues and deficit reduction — putting the lie to much of the knee-jerk criticism of President Trump and the GOP Congress's tax-cut bill," Moore wrote in a New York Post column.
He observed that one of "the key principles of Trumponomics is that faster economic growth can help solve a multitude of other social and economic problems — from poverty, to inner-city decline, to lowering the national debt."
"We’re not quite at a sustained elevated growth rate of 3 percent yet, but the latest economic snapshot tells us we are knocking on the door," said Moore, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and an economic consultant with FreedomWorks.
The growth rate over the last four quarters has been 2.9 percent, which was higher than any of the eight years of Barack Obama's presidency.
Halfway through the second quarter, which began April 1, the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimated growth at 4 percent, he noted.
Moore said that if that rate persists through the end of June, the U.S. will have reached an average growth rate of 3 percent under Trump. ‎
On top of that, Moore said, the U.S. already is beginning to see a fiscal dividend from Trump's pro-business tax, energy and regulatory policies.
The Congressional Budget Office reported tax revenues in April totaled $515 billion, a 13 percent rise over last year. ‎
It amounted to a $218 billion monthly surplus, the largest ever.
Moore pointed out that "the bean counters" in Congress claimed the tax bill would "cost" the Treasury $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in most revenues over the next decade.
But if the higher growth rate Trump has already accomplished remains in place, he said, there will be a surplus of more than $3 trillion over the decade, lowering the national debt.
Moore anticipated critics who will say the new receipts are for 2017 tax payments, which don't take account the tax cut.
"This ignores that some of the growth spurt we have seen was a result of the anticipation of the tax cut. Moreover, the fact that the tax cuts are just sinking in means we should get even higher growth rates for the next several years at least," he argued.
Moore said, however, the April surprise has some bad new, as the "inexcusable" $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill passed in March that increased federal spending by some $300 billion in 2018 has resulted in an increase in federal outlays of 8.7 percent for April.
When Congress passed the tax bill Dec. 20, several major corporations immediately responded by raising wages and offering year-end employee bonuses, and dozens did the same in the following weeks.
The bill also eliminated the Obamacare individual mandate, which required every taxpayer to buy health insurance, and opened up the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, or ANWR, to oil drilling.