The U.S. decision to drop out of the Iran nuclear agreement could cause the Iranian economy to decline and ultimately collapse, a report from the Congressional Research Service affirms.
"There is potential for Iran's economy to decline to the point where Iran's leaders decide to accept a renegotiation of the JCPOA along the lines President Trump has insisted upon," says the report, documented in Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.
"Alternatively, severe economic deterioration could prompt Iranian officials to negotiate restrictions on Iran's missile program, such as a limitation on the ranges of such missiles."
There is a long list of possibilities that could develop, the report says.
Titled "U.S. Decision to Cease Implementing the Iran Nuclear Agreement," the report was written by Kenneth Katzman, specialist in Middle Eastern affairs; Paul Kerr, specialist in nonproliferation; and Valerie Heitshusen, specialist on Congress and the legislative process.
It summarizes the statements the president has made about the faults of the agreement, signed by President Obama without approval from the Senate, which must approve all treaties.
The report says European Union countries, as well as Russia, China and other major Iran trading partners, "might attempt to shield from – or obtain exemptions from – any U.S. penalties for conducting transactions with Iran that violate reimposed U.S. sanctions."
"The EU might do so through such actions as blocking regulations or the World Trade Organization complaint process. EU governments might also seek from the United States exemptions from penalties."
Another possibility is that the JCPOA "will collapse without U.S. participation."
"Major international firms, now that they face the threat of being virtually shut out of the large U.S. market, might exit Iran and thereby cause Iran's economy to deteriorate sharply. Iranian leaders might argue that Iran is no longer benefitting from complying with the JCPOA and then resume those nuclear activities that are restricted under the accord. Iran could, for example, reinstall centrifuges, increase centrifuge production, or produce enriched uranium containing more than the JCPOA-permitted amount of uranium-235."
For the rest of this report, and more, please go to Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.