(CBS NEWS) — Ball State University sits in Muncie, Indiana, at the heart the “Rust Belt,” so educators there have the right to be pessimistic about the drift of the U.S. economy. But a report by the school’s Center for Business and Economic Research goes even further.

“We found a toxic brew,” said CBER Director Michael Hicks. “Automation is likely to replace half of all low-skilled jobs, and roughly one in four of all American jobs are at risk from foreign competition in coming years.”

This is happening right on Hicks’s doorstep. While the nation’s most vulnerable area is the Aleutian Islands, some of the hardest hit places are likely to be Midwestern counties only 15 minutes from his office.

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